Sure bets are bets where the punter gets guarantees profit regardless of the final result. Therefore it is necessary to place more than one bet in order to cover all possible outcomes of a match. However, these bets must be made taking into account odds so that from a mathematical point of view the Punter makes a profit on all the different outcomes.
Sound too good to be true?
We will explain how sure bets work and how you can start making a profit these kinds of bets!
How do Sure Bets work?
As mentioned above, it is necessary to place a bet on the different outcomes of the match in order to win money, regardless of the final outcome. First of all, you need to open an account at several bookmakers as bets are usually placed at different bookmakers.
As you are sure to know, odds vary over time and also from bookmaker to bookmaker. This means that the odds for the same bet are often different at different bookmakers. Some try to have the risk more on one side while others may take longer to adjust their odds. Therefore, sure bets are nothing more and nothing less than bets placed with different bookmakers that do not offer the same odds for a given game.
Sports that don’t have a tie, like tennis, are usually the easiest to make sure bets because you only need to cover two potential outcomes.
How to calculate Sure Bets
Now that you’ve understood the theory behind sure bets, let’s look at an example of a tennis match between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer.
Bookmaker “A” offers 2.15 for Djokovic to win the match while Bookmaker “B” offers 2.15 for Federer to win. If you bet $100 on each player you guarantee a return of $215 with a total investment of $200. This means that, regardless of the final result, you guarantee a profit of $15 on this match.
This is clearly a very simple example where the odds of the two players were identical, but the logic is the same for other odds. In most cases, you will need additional calculations to determine the amounts to bet on in order to make a guaranteed profit.
How do you identify the Sure Bets?
The first step in identifying sure bets is to open an account at as many bookmakers as possible. You will want to have access to the odds of the different bookmakers so you can compare where you can find the best odds.
The next step is to find two probabilities for opposite outcomes whose sum is less than 100%.
What does this mean? Well, Djokovic’s probability of winning in the previous example in bookmaker “A” was 46.51%. To calculate this probability you only have to divide 1 by odd, in this case, 1 / 2.15 = 46.51%.
On the other hand, the odds of Federer winning at bookmaker “B” are also 46.51%. Adding the two odds, you have 93.02% and since the value is less than 100%, you can make a sure bet.
How do I define how much to bet on Sure Bets?
After finding a sure bet, it is essential to define the right amounts to bet in order to obtain guaranteed profits. This means that you will need to make detailed calculations that include a total of three steps:
- You should calculate the probability of each of the outcomes.
- It should add up the probability of the various outcomes (it was 93.02% in the previous example).
- Finally, you must divide the probability of each outcome by the total probability. In the previous example, 46.51% divided by 93.02% gives 0.5, which means you must bet half the total amount on each of the outcomes. If the probability of one of the outcomes was 40% and the total probability was 90%, you would bet 44.44% on this bet.
Placing sure bets is undoubtedly a good strategy and extremely profitable, but it is not always easy to find opportunities to make them. Bookmakers are increasingly quick to react and the window of opportunity to place bets is usually small. On the other hand, it is important to make both bets at the same time because there is always the risk that the odds will change in one of the bookmakers and it is no longer possible to make a sure bet.
Opening an account at as many bookmakers as possible is key to finding sure bets. The more possibilities you have, the more likely you are to find opportunities to make a guaranteed profit. However, you need to pay special attention to ensure that odds do not change while you are placing your bets.